2026 Oscar Predictions

It’s Oscar time! For those who’d like to follow along at home (and laugh at me), here are this year’s predictions (last year’s count, for the record, was 15-8):

Best Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, F1: The Movie, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
Prediction: One Battle After Another

Best Actor
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Prediction: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia
Prediction: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Prediction: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Prediction: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Ryan Coogler, Sinners; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners
Prediction: Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
Prediction: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography
Nominees: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Prediction: Sinners

Best Film Editing
Nominees: F1: The Movie, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sentimental Value
Prediction: One Battle After Another

Best Production Design
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Prediction: Frankenstein

Best Costume Design
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners
Prediction: Frankenstein

Best Sound
Nominees: F1: The Movie, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt
Prediction: Sinners

Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Nominees: Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister
Prediction: Frankenstein

Best Original Score
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Prediction: Sinners

Best Original Song
Nominees: Diane Warren: Relentless, “Dear Me” by Diane Warren; KPop Demon Hunters, “Golden” by EJAE, Joong Gyu-kwak, Nam Hee-dong and Jeong Seong-Hoon; Sinners, “I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq; Viva Verdi, “Sweet Dreams of Joy” by Nicholas Pike; Train Dreams, “Train Dreams” by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner
Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters, “Golden” by EJAE Joong Gyu-kwak, Nam Hee-dong and Jeong Seong-Hoon

Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1: The Movie, Jurassic World: Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners
Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor

Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters

Best Animated Short
Nominees: Papillon (Butterfly), Forevergreen, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Retirement Plan, The Three Sisters
Prediction: Papillon (Butterfly)

Best Live Action Short
Nominees: Butcher’s Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, The Singers, Two People Exchanging Saliva
Prediction: A Friend of Dorothy

Best Documentary Short
Nominees: All the Empty Rooms, Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, Children No More: Were and are Gone, The Devil Is Busy, Perfectly a Strangeness
Prediction: The Devil Is Busy

Best International Feature
Nominees: It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Prediction: Sentimental Value

Best Casting
Nominees: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners
Prediction: Sinners