Hello, dear readers! The time, once again has come — my annual ritual of public humiliation as I attempt to correctly predict the Oscars and most likely end up looking like I don’t know what a movie is and may even be hostile toward the concept. Moving images, and sound? Are you mad?
I kid, mostly. I’ve struggled of late, but last year went reasonably well for my picks. It’s been pointed out to me that I’m failing to put my money where my mouth is by not publishing my annual score, so I made sure to keep count last year: 15 right to eight wrong. Not the best I’ve ever done, but pretty respectable (my main mistake was underestimating Dune).
That is almost certainly not going to be the case this year. I’ve been a faithful Oscar follower since around 2009, and in all that time, I cannot remember a year where the field felt this open. I wrung my hands over a lot of these categories.
As far as I’m concerned, that’s good news because it’s a function of 2022 having been a fantastic year for movies — and this being one of my favorite slates of Oscar nominees of all time. I don’t agree with all of the picks here, but what I like about this roster is how varied it is. You’ve got two giant blockbusters, a word-of-mouth hit kung fu comedy, an extravagant music movie, one foreign film (doubling as a big war epic), and a smattering of smaller dramas with distinctive directorial vision. This year, it actually feels like the academy explored the breadth of the movies that get made and came back with what it liked most. Regardless of who you are, you should be able to find something here that you’ll like. That’s really cool to see even if more than a handful of these movies would not make my own list.
That makes me forgiving enough to skip the “should win” section I usually attach to all of the categories. It would be redundant anyway because RRR is my answer in every category, including the ones for which it was not eligible. Oh, it’s three hours long, you say? Time is relative. Get it a nomination for short film. Seriously, watch RRR this instant.
Anyway, here are the predictions. Feel free to follow along at home and laugh at my misfortune! (Note: I’ve seen all of the nominees except for: in Documentary Short Film, How Do You Measure a Year?; in Live Action Short Film, An Irish Goodbye and The Red Suitcase; and in International Feature, The Quiet Girl.
Best Picture:
All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All at Once; The Banshees of Inisherin; The Fabelmans; Top Gun: Maverick; Triangle of Sadness; Tár; Women Talking
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Austin Butler, Elvis; Bill Nighy, Living; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Ana de Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Cate Blanchett, Tár; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong Chau, The Whale; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Achievement in Directing:
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans; Todd Field, Tár
Winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Original Screenplay:
Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Tár
Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Adapted Screenplay:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
Winner: Women Talking
Best Achievement in Cinematography:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Achievement in Film Editing:
Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, Tár
Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Achievement in Production Design:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
Winner: Babylon
Best Achievement in Costume Design:
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Winner: Elvis
Best Sound:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Batman, Top Gun: Maverick
Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Batman, The Whale
Winner: Elvis
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score):
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans
Winner: The Fabelmans
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song):
“Lift Me Up,” Rihanna, Tems, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Göransson; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; “This Is a Life,” Mitski, Ryan Lott and David Byrne, Everything Everywhere All at Once; “Naatu Naatu,” M.M. Keeravani and Chandrabose, RRR; “Applause,” Diane Warren, Tell It Like a Woman; “Hold My Hand,” Lady Gaga and BloodPop, Top Gun: Maverick
Winner: “Naatu Naatu,” M.M. Keeravani and Chandrabose, RRR
Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Batman, Top Gun: Maverick
Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Documentary Feature:
A House Made of Splinters, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny
Winner: Navalny
Best Animated Feature Film:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Animated Short Film:
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It; Ice Merchants; My Year of Dicks; The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse; The Flying Sailor
Winner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Best Live-Action Short Film:
An Irish Goodbye, Ivalu, Night Ride, The Pupils, The Red Suitcase
Winner: The Pupils
Best Documentary Short Film:
Haulout, How Do You Measure a Year?, Stranger at the Gate, The Elephant Whisperers, The Martha Mitchell Effect
Winner: Stranger at the Gate
Best International Feature Film:
All Quiet on the Western Front; Argentina, 1985; Close; Eo; The Quiet Girl
Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Matthew Triponey 